Tuesday, 5 February 2008

Hillary-Barrack or Obama-Clinton, Democrats playing safe no matter what., Republicans set to devour selves.

Sorry to disappoint the people looking for more hot Natalee Holloway updates, but there's really nothing more to report. It looks like the story is being buried in the U.S. by the election coverage, which gives me an ample opportunity to give a last minute rundown of the situation according to me. It's not so strange that the Holloway story is disappearing, seeing as politics has never been sexier; A woman, A black guy and a Mormon? There's only one traditional looking candidate, but he's always good for a hot soundbite.

In my previous post about the primaries I was chuckling at the huge pack of Republicans popping up and how interesting the race would be for them. Unfortunately, Rudi's strategy didn't pan out and he had to leave. Well, everyone saw that one coming. Who the hell waits until Florida to start campaigning? Rudi blew it, and he never even realised the whole 9-11 thing was dead in the water as soon as he started.

Ron Paul is still hanging on, as all proper goofballs should. He has no hope in hell of coming away with any kind of bargaining power, though. Unlike Mike Huckabee, who's definitely trying to capture as big a piece of the conservative christian vote as possible, even though it's hard to say how this will translate to bargaining power.

Mitt Romney is fighting his weird cult-member image with business credentials and it seems to be working. There's a real possibility that he might capture the religious vote and if he doesn't, Mike is available as vice-president. It's gonna be a tough fight against McCain, the two are head to head, especially in California, which is only just waking up.

The bizarre turn around of the last few weeks is that the bulk of conservative commentators is turning on McCain for a variety of garbled reasons. This kind of infighting is more common on the left side of the political spectrum, and I'm really relishing it. Let's hope the general public in the U.S. realises the insanity in this and stops listening to those idiots. FOX news is not journalism.

Even better would be that they get together and set up a third party on the extreme right. It's about time and that would open up the possibility for a decent far left party as well. Some coalition politics would not only lively up congress and the house, but there would be room for a wider variety of viewpoints in cabinets, committees, etc. Just imagine, the U.S. a mature democracy where party affiliation is a reliable indication of policy decisions, and where personal charisma takes a back seat to voting record.

The democrats are not putting all their eggs in one basket, last week's mutual vice presidency admissions are quite obviously engineered by the DNC. They probably promised their delegates to whomever wanted a democratic win most.

Who's eventually going to emerge candidate for either party will be much easier to gauge tomorrow, but it we know it's going to break down into four scenarios.

-Obama versus McCain. One of the two nightmare scenarios for conservatives. No one to vote for, nothing to gain. McCain is fantastic at dirty tricks, but nothing has stuck to Obama yet and even if it did, by that point the image contrast between the two is going to be obvious. Obama is ridiculously dynamic by comparison, and he can throw so many old peccadiloes at McCain it's ridiculous. McCain doesn't have the same appeal, and certainly not with the voters they'll b fighting for, the conservatives.
EDGE:Barack Obama

-Clinton versus McCain. The other nightmare. This one will definitely be the most entertaining. The Clintons are at least as good as he is at burying their opponents under layers of accusations, but if McCain is still missing the vital christians, he won't stand a chance. Hillary could even steal them if she pitches it right. Like Ann Coulter promised, she'd campaign for Hillary before she'd call McCain anything less than 'uncomfortably close to the Antichrist'.
EDGE:Hillary Clinton

-Obama versus Romney. This one would just be weird. 'Change' versus 'Economy', White men and churchgoers who would actually go out and vote versus everybody else, most of whom wouldn't. By far the most polarising and uncomfortable presidential race, even for the candidates. There's no obvious winner in this one, and just might split the U.S. down the middle for the hundredth time. Neither has enough history or serious policy failures behind them, so it would be another image over issues race.
EDGE:Who knows?

-Clinton versus Romney. Hillary has this one in the bag, Romney's grasp on the electorate is too tenuous to stand up to Clinton's barrage of communication. She's running a highly focussed campaign, picking exactly the groups that she wants to reach, and reaching them perfectly. Romney's personal fortune is peanuts compared to what Clinton can get with a few vague promises to lobbyists. And the experience the Clintons have is going to make mincemeat of his business credentials, she might also try to steal the religious right away from him, if all the other voting blocs are secure.
EDGE:Hillary Clinton

Definite answers from the exit polls in four hours.

2 comments:

Katablog said...

It's not one bit bizarre that Republicans are turning on McAmnesty McCain; he turned on the GOP a long time ago and many of us will not forget it. We are sick of being told to vote for the lesser of two evils. Evil is evil. Wrong is wrong and a Democrat is a Democrat even if they wear a Republican sign.

Romney should not be viewed for his religious beliefs (and note, they are certainly not my beliefs) unless one believes that his beliefs would affect his presidency. What bigots don't realize is that while Mormans are not Christians, their beliefs would not threaten Americans.

Now Republicans who are not Christians should be afraid of Huckabee because Huck is running on his religion. What the heck does Huck stand for besides being a Christian?

Romney certainly would not have been my first choice, but out of those left to pick from the GOP side, he is my only choice.

Trust me, the media controls what we listen to - the Holloway story will come back in full force by Thursday (tomorrow will be a mixed bag with pundits speculating what today meant).

Olivier de Vries said...

Politics is always about picking the lesser of two evils. The only candidate I'd ever agree with 100% is myself, and I'm not running.

As for the religion issue, I think a lot of conservative christian voters are wary of voting for someone with strong religious beliefs this time around. George W. Bush's presidency has proved that this doesn't necessarily translate to the kind of presidency you want. And whether or not Romney's politics are informed by his religion, there's still the question what that religion entails exactly. Mormonism is constantly being updated to better fit the political climate, and Romney takes a page out of that book whenever he needs to win. It looks like the results are in, and Huckabee and Romney have just over half the delegates that McCain has. That's the republican party voting without religious alignment. Their old power base of fiscal conservatives is back, and the religious vote is looking more and more marginalised, especially when you take into account that it's being split between two candidates.